While the details of ITV's 2008 schedule changes have been given wide publicity, the other commercial PSBs have slipped under the radar. Do any of them have clear programming visions that will cement long-term success?
Richard Oliver, head of investment at Universal McCann, says: "It's hard to say any of them have put in place a vision that guarantees future success. It's a dynamic marketplace that is less about long-term business plans and more about people with good track records."
Even so, all the commercial PSBs have set out their stalls, with ITV leading the way. Michael Grade has reinstated News at Ten, introduced a slate of new 9pm dramas, created a long entertainment-led weekend and rejigged the positioning of its two soaps Coronation Street and Emmerdale.
On the whole, the revamped ITV has been received well. Jane Root, former controller of BBC2 and executive vice-president and general manager of the Discovery Channel in the US, says: "The new schedule looks very smart, especially bringing back Friday night as 'entertainment night'. Grade made Friday night a comedy night while Channel 4 and other channels followed suit - making Fridays huge. We would hear that the receipts in bars went down because people were staying in to watch TV."
Critical time
Mick Desmond, chairman, Channel TV, and former chief executive of ITV Broadcasting, adds: "There is more clarity now about what ITV is trying to achieve - however, a lot will depend on Q1. It's a critical three months ahead."
Julian Bellamy, head of Channel 4, defines its 2008 look as "filled with a lot more of these schedule-busting events" in reference to the food season replacing Celebrity Big Brother on the main station.
He says: "We want to make more space for new exciting programmes at 9pm. We've rested Celebrity Big Brother (moved from C4 to E4) to build excitement for the summer series and said goodbye to some shows, such as Brat Camp."
Oliver is unsure that C4 can stick to its goals. "The problem is not a lack of vision at Channel 4, it's how quickly it could sell out. So many see it as failing to deliver its remit and that it's just filled with salacious documentaries, Big Brother and Hollyoaks."
Another agency's head of TV thinks C4 needs to go further. "Things such as Big Brother will have to be axed when the Endemol contract is up. Although it's been great for them, it's a curse too. That whole genre is waning and yet it's still the backbone of C4's year."
Meanwhile, Five's 2008 strategy seems to be where the confusion lies among the industry. Lisa Opie, Five's managing director of content, characterises it as: factual programmes in prime time, a commitment to its US-acquired shows, a "more democratic conversational" news service (with new presenter Natasha Kaplinsky) and the home of Australian soap - from Neighbours' arrival on 11 February.
Opie explains the channel's commercial appeal: "Five still has a mass reach that is important in an increasingly fragmented world - delivering audiences in excess of one million on average 30 times a week."
Root is more doubtful. "Five is in choppy waters and it's going to get harder with digital switchover," she says. Five performs well in non-multichannel homes, but you wonder how large the gap is between Sky 1 and Five in multichannel homes."
Another concern is the lack of parent RTL's funding in Five. As Oliver explains: "Ultimately, Five can't massively change its strategy because its programming budget remains largely the same. There is lots of speculation around whether it will merge or be bought out."
Future role
But is there still a role for these commercial PSBs in a digital era? Ofcom is conducting a review centred around just this. Departing media minister James Purnell and his Convergence Think Tank hope to define it further. Purnell described the PSBs as "the same idea in a new era" in a recent speech at the Oxford Media Convention. The PSBs are still very necessary, but will have to adapt.
Opie says: "People suffer from decision overload, so they want the editorial choices made for them and that's the power of the PSB brand. Because it becomes harder to navigate, you need the unique choice a commercial PSB brings."
Desmond thinks the commercial PSBs are over the worst in terms of the increased competition on the road to digital switchover, and concludes: "It's now going to be more commercial and less PSB. Everything will fall to audience share and performance."
COMMERCIAL PSBS' STRATEGIES 2008
ITV Resurrect News at Ten; build on the pre-news peak viewing hour with 9pm dramas; create long entertainment-led weekend, such as moving Dancing on Ice to Sundays; reshuffle the Sunday showings of Coronation Street and Emmerdale; US acquisitions for the 10.30pm post-news slot - such as Pushing Daisies
Channel 4 (full strategy to be released in March) Move Celebrity Big Brother to E4, to rest the brand; create themed strands of programming - such as its food season; fill the 9pm slot with more inventive and startling shows; drop some old series such as Brat Camp to make room for new shows
Five Be the home of Australian soap - when Neighbours moves across on 11 February, run back to back with Home and Away for a full hour; build on the anti-soap spot at 7.30pm with shows such as Rough Guide to ...; have more conversational-style news, with new host Natasha Kaplinsky; remain committed to US-acquired shows such as CSI; provide factual shows in prime time; continue with strong natural history billing; from 8pm onwards, attract 16 to 34 male profile with male-skewed shows such as Fifth Gear.