City Republic: Is Hewlett-Packard the best company in the world?

These things tend not to last but at the moment it's certainly a contender.

The computer giant, the world's biggest PC maker, has just announced third quarter profits of $2.5bn, up 11% on last year's stellar performance.

Overseas sales, helped by the weaker dollar, drove the company's growth, accounting for 68% of sales.

Sales to BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) rose by 24% from a year ago and now account for 10% of sales.

There are companies that make more money than H-P of course, chiefly oil companies and miners. But their profits have been driven by high commodity prices rather than any brilliance on their part.

Apple's Steve Jobs might dispute the award to H-P (last week Apple's market value briefly overtook Google's). Apple is certainly the current leader when it comes to innovation but both companies have shown that it's still possible to sell premium products profitably even in these uncertain times.

H-P's results also show that there's a manufacturing and exporting upside to the weaker dollar, despite the problems it's caused the US in terms of higher fuel costs.

If only the US car companies were able to benefit in a similar manner.

 

China plans a post-Olympics boost

So far so good at the Beijing Olympics with the Chinese authorities managing to restrain themselves for the most part and competitors, spectators and the biggest global TV audiences of all time thoroughly enjoying themselves (especially the medal-burdened Brits).

But the Chinese economy has been slowing sharply and its stock market has tumbled to about half its value last year.

The Shanghai market soared this morning on speculation that the Chinese government is planning a $58bn boost to the economy, presumably via tax cuts, to keep things moving.

China certainly has the money, sitting on trillions of dollars earned from exports to the West.

If (make that read, when) such a boost is announced, it will provoke a mixed reaction in the West, particularly in the US.

To date China has used much of its budget surplus to buy US government and corporate bonds, so any reduction in this flow will cause some alarm in the financial sector.

A big China boost will also support the prices of oil and metals, so that won't be good for manufacturing.

But a Chinese crash is the last thing anyone needs so, on balance, the markets will be cheering on the Chinese.

 

Will breaking up BAA make a difference?

The Competition Commission has recommended that BAA, the Spanish-owned company that operates all the UK's major airports with the exception of Manchester, should be made to sell two out of Heathrow, Gatwick and Stansted (which account for 90% of traffic via London) and one from Glasgow and Edinburgh.

These are preliminary findings and there'll be ferocious lobbying by BAA before the final decision in April next year.

Mind you, owner Ferrovial's shares rose this morning, suggesting shareholders would rather like to see the airport sales.

But will passengers get a better deal from someone else owning Gatwick or Stansted?

It would be nice to think they would but another heavily-borrowed airport owner would have exactly the same problems with investment, capacity and charges to airlines and ultimately passengers (that is, the need to keep them high).

Can we please pick an owner with some money this time?

 

Rogoff spells doom and gloom for banks

Former IMF economist Ken Rogoff put the wind up the markets on Tuesday with a conference speech predicting that one of the big banks would fail before the credit crunch passes.

While there have been a number of small and mid-sized bank failures in the US (and our own dear Northern Rock of course), the authorities seem clearly minded to prevent one of the big boys hitting the rocks.

If the likes of Lehman Brothers (still under fire in the US) or its bigger compatriot Merrill Lynch went under we could live with that.

Its contracts would be snapped up by competitors, as JP Morgan Chase did with Bear Sterns.

If the victim was what we used to call a ‘clearing' bank, ie one that lends to private customers, then it would be a serious problem.

But it's much more likely to be a mortgage bank, like Northern Rock.

But here again the smaller ones are being snapped up; Alliance and Leicester by Santander for example.

Rogoff's comments came on top of further dire predictions for US mortgage lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. But both these entities have succeeded in raising billions in extra capital recently, albeit at high prices.

What's certain is that there will be more deals in the financial sector.

Barclays Capital boss, the aptly named Bob Diamond, has been making aggressive noises about snapping up US financial assets and there's no doubt there are some bargains around.

But will the Barclays board be brave enough to give Bob his head?

 

More woe for Rose

Marks & Spencer is bringing forward its next trading update by a month to October 2, presumably to prepare the market for some dire results when it announces its next financial figures.

Analysts reckon food is still the biggest problem, with like-for-like sales dropping by about 8%.

Given the eye-watering prices charged for some M&S food lines this isn't actually so bad a performance. Even the likes of Tesco are losing some sales to discounters Aldi and Lidl as consumers trade down.

But M&S executive chairman Stuart Rose is a wily old bird and he knows as well as anyone that M&S needs to escape its ‘boom and bust' profits pattern.

Last time out it made £1bn plus for the first time in over a decade; 2008 is obviously going to be lower.

Getting M&S's food offer pitched at a level where sales don't drop off a cliff as soon as the economy tightens will clearly play a big part in this.

So expect some good news with the bad from Rose when he reports in October.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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