Barclays, banks and the elephant in the living room
The point about markets is that you can find out pretty rapidly what a fair price is, whether you're buying carrots or shares. The trouble at the moment is that you can't (unless you're buying carrots).
No-one knows the extent of the bank losses, or write-downs, we're looking at. These, of course, have been triggered by a pile of worthless US mortgages.
Banks make loans and register them as assets. Then, when they don't perform they write them off. Which is what's happening at the moment.
They haven't necessarily lost the money but they might do. They're all praying that at some point they can write these loans back in as assets.
So at the moment, we have a false market in the UK and, to a lesser extent, in the US.
Some of the big US banks have already announced their write-downs and, in the case of Citigroup and Merrill Lynch, the bosses have walked the plank because they've already had to revise these already ghastly figures down.
So far the Brits, with the exception of HSBC, have kept schtum.
On Friday, Barclays bank shares on the London FTSE 100 were suspended because they were falling so fast.
Rumours abounded that the bank was looking at a big hit on US mortgage packages.
The exchange said the suspension was to check that the "system" was working. The possibility is that the powers-that-be feared a run on the bank.
If you think Northern Rock was bad, think what a run on Barclays would be like.
In the end, the shares rallied a bit and the other UK bank in the frame, Royal Bank of Scotland, fared slightly worse.
Over the weekend, Barclays announced that it would bring its next trading statement forward from November 27, probably to this week. Auditor PricewaterhouseCoopers will cast its eagle eye over this (the same auditors who've been signing off off-balance sheet adventures for the past few years).
RBS kept quiet, but it won't be able to for very long.
Until investors know the damage, it's impossible to value any other share or deal accurately. So the markets can't operate properly.
It's absolutely vital that Barclays and RBS own up to the write-downs they're going to have to make, and get the figures right.
It's always tempting to put in the minimum and hope that events get you out of a hole later on.
But that won't wash as Citigroup's Chuck Prince and Merrill Lynch's Stan O'Neal have discovered.
In some ways, RBS is in an even worse place than Barclays, being the proud new owner (along with Spain's Santander and the Dutch Fortis) of £70bn ABN Amro.
It will be interesting to see how RBS CEO Fred "the shred" Goodwin talks his way out of this one. He gained his soubriquet for his cost-cutting expertise when RBS took over NatWest.
He'll probably keep his job while the City waits to see if he can work the same magic on ABN.
But it's going to be a tough old week for him and his counterparts at Barclays, CEO John Varley and Barclays Capital wizard Bob Diamond.
And indeed for other all those other bank bosses who are going to have to come clean too.
Can London lead stocks upwards?
The Dow Jones and the tech-heavy Nasdaq index each plummeted in late trading on Wall Street (Friday) as investors closed positions and, in the case of the Nasdaq, took profits.
Far Eastern markets fell sharply earlier today as the weakening dollar hit the prospects of exporters, particularly in Japan.
The Tokyo Nikkei and broader-based Topix both fell to their lowest levels since summer 2006.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng index slumped 4.5% in morning trading, following the Shanghai Index, which fell sharply as the Chinese central bank tightened banks' credit allowances.
But the London FTSE100 bounced back in early trading after opening lower (well we don't have exports to worry about). Barclays was up 3% in early trading following weekend news that it would bring forward its trading statement.
As ever, Wall Street will be crucial and may respond positively to news that three banks hit by the mortgage crisis -- Citigroup, Bank of America and JP Morgan -- are to rejig their plans for a $75bn "superfund" for distressed mortgage "assets".
If this makes it easier for other banks to join and get these things off their balance sheets bankers, at least, will be happier.
Tuesday is D-Day for Emap
Magazines to radio group Emap is due to report its latest half-year figures on Tuesday and we'll be able to see if it really is worth £10 a share to one or more prospective buyers.
If the figures don't stack up, then former managing director Sir David Arculus' consortium will come back into the frame as a potential owner of the group.
So far most of the putative bidders are other publishers in alliance with private equity firms.
This should ring a warning bell for shareholders and, indeed, the staff and other stakeholders.
The private equity boys will need to borrow heavily and then pay themselves a big dividend. Leaving the company even more starved of investment.
With money growing more expensive by the hour a simple management buy-in with a chunk of new investment looks by far the best solution.
Online shopping surges on
Price comparison site Uswitch reckons online shopping in the UK this year will hit £40bn, well on the way to a staggering £162bn in 2020, 40% of all retail sales.
That's assuming we've got any money in 2020 of course.
Online research specialist Forrester reckons that online Christmas shopping this year will hit £13.8bn, which should mean a few empty shops if the credit crunch goes on.
Maybe we're closing on the day when shops are just there for impulse purchases and places where you display goods which people then buy online when they get home.
Stephen Foster is a former news editor of 北京赛车pk10, former editor of Marketing Week and Evening Standard ad columnist. He is a partner in Editorial Partnership and writes the blog and Politics of the Media for Brand Republic.