Mark Gallagher, head of press at OMD, believes the weekly market is over-supplied and forecasts that titles across the sector will close as publishers look to rein in costs.
He says: "Heat plateaued a couple of years ago and its latest figure could have been impacted by [former editor] Mark Frith's departure. But the downturn across the sector as a whole is due to the fact that the whole market is over-supplied."
Clare Rush, head of press at Mediaedge:cia, believes the celebrity sector is lacking credibility because of the poor quality of its stories and, equally, because the public is losing interest in TV personalities.
Heat, which appointed editor Julian Linley in June, saw its average circulation fall to 470,129, a period-on-period drop of 11.8%, despite Bauer Media backing the title with an estimated £1m TV campaign over the period.
However, David Davies, managing director of Bauer Media's women's group, believes the title is now on the path to resurgence.
He says: "With a new editor at the helm, a new marketing campaign and a commitment to long-term investment, Heat has seen some of its best sales in two years in recent weeks."
Sister title Closer, which upped its cover price by 10p to £1.20 in January, also saw its circulation fall - 7.5% year on year and 3.9% period on period - to 527,325, despite a TV campaign.
Meanwhile, NatMags' Reveal, undergoing a major revamp, witnessed a torrid six months with its circulation falling to 277,002, a drop of 15% period on period and 20.2% year on year.
The sector continues to be led by Richard Desmond-owned OK! magazine. Its average circulation fell 11.2% over the period, but was up 9% over the year to 607,048. Arch rival Hello! enjoyed a lift of 8% in its period-on-period circulation.
