Carlton and Granada advertising forecasts cut

LONDON - Shares in ITV companies Carlton and Granada fell sharply this morning as analysts at several investment banks cut their forecasts on concerns about advertising revenues at the broadcaster.

The news follows industry figures in the press at the weekend showing that January and February ad revenues at ITV were set to continue to fall, despite recent reports that a recovery is on the way. ITV's share of advertising is also set to fall to below 50%.

Shares in Granada were down by 5% at 8:15 to 69p while Carlton fell 5.17% to 116p.

Nick Bell, an analyst at Bear Sterns, said in a research note: "Early ITV advertising estimates point to a decline in February of as much as 10% following a 1.9% decline in January."

Bell cut his advertising forecast for the year to a fall of 1% from growth of 2%, according to reports. The cut at Bear Sterns was followed by Merrill Lynch, which downgraded the two ITV broadcasters to "neutral'' from "buy". Merrill Lynch cited concerns over the poor outlook for advertising revenues.

However, the current advertising forecasts for ITV come before the end of the new year negotiating period, which is when a large number of the broadcaster's major advertising deals are brokered. Once these deals have been agreed, by the end of the month, a clearer picture of the station's share of advertising will be available.

The companies' merger plans were also called into question in a note from Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein, which cut its rating on Granada to "add" from "buy" and reduced its price to 90p from 120p. The bank downgraded Carlton to "hold" from "buy" and cut its price to 130p from 220p.

The bank said in a statement: "An ITV merger would be shareholder friendly, but is not yet a done deal. An expected Competition Commission inquiry presents genuine risk of merger derailment, while current prices reflect near-certain merger success."

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