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Which challenges and trends will define the first five years of the

new millennium? Is it possible that we’ll all be working from our

kitchen tables and taking part in business meetings via a video

conference link? When it comes to the advertising on our screens, will

there be two dominant genres consisting of the global missive in

competition with quirky, locally relevant spots?

There were no surprises in what the agency chiefs ±±¾©Èü³µpk10 spoke to

thought would be the most influential factor in advertising over the

next few years - the growth of e-commerce worldwide.

Kotaro Sugiyama, senior creative director of Dentsu, believes that the

culture spawned by the internet will empower consumers so that they

become major communication players. Pat Fallon, co-founder of Fallon

McElligott, believes that 2000 will see the continued growth of

e-commerce, fuelled as much by traditional retailers and businesses as

by e-tailors.

’Traditional clients will want to better integrate on- and offline

efforts. They will turn to agencies for help and often find it lacking.

So they will turn to interactive agencies - which, in turn, will seek

out more revenue from these clients,’ Fallon says.

’The war between old and new economy brand partners will begin.

Accountability will be a linchpin issue with the e-enabled customer

database being the focal point. The media world will be rocked by

mergers of the old and new economies, driven by the convergence of

entertainment, commerce and communication.’

For Martin Sorrell, group chief executive of WPP, new technology or

channels of distribution will also be of a paramount importance because

of the way they ’violently disintermediate established businesses’ and

’at lower margins and lower profit models’. Two further trends targeted

by Sorrell are ’overcapacity in branding’ and internal communications as

companies go through ’significant and strategic change’.

Moving away from the consequences of technology is the concern of John

Perriss, chairman and chief executive of Zenith Worldwide. ’Advertising

accounted for 1.02 per cent of GDP in 1999 and in good times, like now,

advertising percentage of GDP tends to rise. If the economy falters, the

fallback for the industry amounts to several billion dollars. We predict

that it will rise to 1.04 per cent in 2000.’

The prognosis for creativity is uncertain. Michael Conrad, vice-chairman

and chief creative officer of the Leo Group, sees that in the short

term, ’advertising will continue to be defined and influenced by the

existence of indistinct and mediocre work. There are too many

commercials of inferior quality that pollute the human mind.’

In the US, Alan Causey, managing director of social analysis forecasts

at Lowe Lintas & Partners New York, predicts that the most important

influence will be the continued emergence of dotcom companies into mass

advertising and the evolvement of their advertising.

Creatives also face major upheaval, according to Perriss, as agencies

seek to become more cost effective. ’They will freelance out more

creative work. As there are far better margins in marketing services and

media agencies that have quoted margins of 20 per cent plus. Creative

departments that have a car brief, for example, will commission a few

teams that have solid car experience to develop the idea.’

Fallon prophesises that ’there will be many casualties’ in the name of

change.

Sorrell believes that agencies’ structures will change to reflect

clients’ significant structural reorganisation. ’Although clients want

strong creative talent they also need the resources of global networks.

Big agencies will have to behave like small ones, demonstrating creative

ingenuity and flexibility. Similarly, small ones will have to behave

like big ones, demonstrating depth of resource, coverage and

co-ordination.’

Sorrell continues: ’If you are going to develop a business of global

significance, domination of the American market is critical. In

advertising and marketing services, for example, approximately 45 per

cent of the expenditure in this dollars 1 trillion industry originates

in the US. The answer is the development of global businesses rooted in

the most vibrant market in the world - the US.’

±±¾©Èü³µpk10s will become neither more global in their focus nor locally

relevant, but both. Sugiyama believes that regionality will remain core,

although the globalisation of regional cultures will, undoubtedly, be

reflected in some campaigns.

Fallon argues that both will happen. ’With the internet enabling more

businesses to compete on a global stage, and with the trade barriers

coming down, clients will, increasingly, look for global campaigns as a

means to manage their brands more effectively.’

But there is a counterforce to globalisation. An increased pride in

national, regional, cultural or tribal identity will emerge. This will

demand that advertising be adapted on a case-by-case basis.

The recent move by Coca-Cola from global to local advertising campaigns

illustrates how some advertisers are re-evaluating the way they target

consumers.

Causey sees consumers’ weariness of being sold to as the biggest

challenge for agencies. ’The ever-growing group of consumers who are

marketing resistant will tax even the most astute advertiser,’ he

says.

’Americans have bought for the past 30 years without finding the

promised fulfilment. As our population matures, the race to acquire is

giving way to a desire to experience something more satisfying. In 2000,

simplification is the most powerful symbol of achievement - as

complexity was in the 80s, when having no free time was a mark of having

made it.’

Jane Austin is the editor of ±±¾©Èü³µpk10 Screen.