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The warning, from consultancy Oliver & Ohlbaum today, comes as Ofcom is consulting on changes to the amount and distribution of TV ads.

Speaking at a Westminster Media Forum event on the future of broadcast advertising, Oliver & Ohlbaum managing director Sean McGuire laid out the "worse case scenario" of the effect of releasing more commercial impacts into the TV market, arguing that TV ad spend could drop by £150m during the quarter after such changes were introduced, due to price deflation.

McGuire said it was "difficult to see" the positive impact of increasing ad minutes for broadcasters.

He said changing ad allowances would involve the "transfer of revenue from multichannel to the PSBs" but that the "biggest impact" could be on the PSBs' own digital channels so the short-term effects could outweigh long-term commercial gains.

McGuire said increasing the average number of ad minutes available to commercial PSBs to nine minutes per hour and removing peak-time restrictions would boost PSBs' ad revenues, but warned that multichannel ad revenues would be cut by £162m. Consequently, he argued, overall TV ad spend - including PSBs and multichannel - would increase by just 1.5% following the introduction of such changes.

Broadcasters and agencies overwhelmingly spoke out against increasing ad minutage. VBS managing director Nick Bampton said TV would be "devalued" by the move, while Five's head of airtime management Tanya O'Sullivan said programming spend would take a hit due to ad price deflation. "The price of TV advertising is at its lowest for years. More ads would not introduce more revenue." Both, however, called for more flexibility in ad break scheduling.

Kate Stross, Ofcom director of content, said Ofcom's consultation findings on changes to rules on the amount and distribution of TV ads would be unveiled in July and September.

She said Ofcom wanted some deregulation of "archaic" ad rules, but was "surprised at the consensus" from broadcasters that increasing the amount of ads would not have a positive impact on revenues. She said ITV in particular was pushing for flexibility of ads in peak time. "Ofcom has invited ITV to set out its views on this," she added.