Channel 4's decision to axe the tired Big Brother format from its summer schedule after 2010, thereby freeing up 200 peak-time hours across C4 and E4, will have a significant impact on advertisers, whether the broadcaster wants to admit it or not.
The obvious question raised by C4's decision is what will replace the reality-TV show. The broadcaster has claimed that it will use the 'many millions' of pounds saved by not renewing its contract with series creator Endemol on new commissions. However, whether this is feasible, given the huge cuts in the programming budget it has already been forced to make, is another matter.
Drama is one area C4 claims will benefit from the savings. Drama commissions are expensive and take considerable time to develop, but when done well, can offer strong opportunities for advertisers. When Red Riding, a dark drama based on David Peace's novels, debuted in March, it brought in 2.5m viewers. The six hours of programming over three weeks targeted an ABC1 audience. As well as spot ads, it had a sponsor.
Nonetheless, Steve Hewlett, a former head of factual and features at C4 and now a freelance media writer and broadcaster, does not believe drama commissions will be sufficient to fill the 200 prime-time hours left open. 'Top-quality drama is expensive and hard to make pay for itself,' he says. 'It will need to find a way to maintain its young audience.'
Equally, a C4 without Big Brother is a network that potentially will be more expensive to advertise on. That is unless it can plug the gap with content that pulls in the all-important 16- to 34-year-old audience to the same degree as Big Brother has for almost 10 years; drama is unlikely to do this.
While viewing figures for this year's series of Big Brother have dropped to
an average of 2.2m - down from a high of 5.3m in 2002 - this still contributes significantly to C4's total impacts (one person's viewing of one commercial).
Chris Locke, trading group director at Starcom MediaVest Group, claims the demise of Big Brother will have a huge effect on C4's audience share. 'It runs across a period that, historically, doesn't have much competition,' he says. 'The more impacts, the cheaper the price, and it becomes fantastically efficient to buy space over that three months, whether you buy around Big Brother or not.'
This leaves the broadcaster in a difficult position - sacrificing its young commercial impacts without anything to replace them. Julian Bellamy, head of C4, says the channel hopes to commission some entertainment-led stunts and boost its commitment to comedy, to 'maintain a sense of fun about its summer schedule'. He adds that he is not looking for a like-for-like replacement for Big Brother. However, he will need to come up with some-thing more concrete than that - and soon.
Hewlett, though, is positive about the channel's prospects. 'With the right approach to risk-taking, C4 will be able to reinvent itself,' he says. However, he also sounds a warning. 'If it sets out to be a mirror image of the BBC, it won't be able to do that.'
When it comes down to it, C4's strategy should be simple: invest in some quality programmes that get people interested and talking. The real issue is whether the Big Brother budget is enough to do this at the already over-stretched broadcaster.