According to the old saying that "when America sneezes the world catches a cold", if the US perks up then we should all feel the benefits.
There are some signs of recovery. The Cash for Clunkers scheme - the American version of scrappage, where old, gas-guzzling cars are traded for new, fuel-efficient ones - has already exhausted its government funds of $1bn, owing to massive consumer response.
The US stock market has rallied and, in June, seven of the 10 economic indicators measured in the conference board's Leading Economic Index report pointed upwards.
But there are still tough times ahead. Newsweek paints an overall picture not of rampant optimism, but an economy recovering from a "near-death experience", and questions what needs to be done to survive the recovery.
Economist Nouriel Roubini predicts: "It is going to feel like a recession even when it ends."
One of the three indicators showing negative in the index was "consumer expectations", and consumer confidence also remains low in the UK.
The July rating, as measured by Gfk NOP, has made no progress since June. And although the rating is up 14% compared to this time last year, it is still very low at -25%.
As business leaders face a daunting autumn, embroiled in the final rounds of fiscal planning for 2010, they are adapting to a world they hope is at least technically post-recession.
Most will be without the overconfidence some say characterised the lead-up to the credit crunch, and this is a positive change. For there will be no plain sailing. As consultant Philip Cox-Hynd wrote: "The reality is often messy.
"A bit like sailing a yacht: you have to keep updating your position with where you actually are as opposed to where you said, or thought, you should be."
Overconfidence can lead to disaster. As Malcolm Gladwell said: "One of the things that happens to us when we become overconfident is that we start to blur the line between the kinds of things we can control and the kinds of things we can't."
And while we can usually control costs, the kinds of things we can't control include consumer confidence, the exchange rates of the dollar and the euro, interest rates, the weather and flu pandemics.
The list goes on.