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The New Year usually signals hard times for broadcasters, but 2008 has so far proved to be particularly difficult for ITV and Channel 4. Both commercial channels lost prime-time share in January, according to Barb/Infosys figures.

ITV1 dropped from 26% to 24.2% year on year, while C4 tumbled from 10.3% to 8%. Both appeared to be suffering from changes to their line-ups. C4 saw its average share eroded by the absence of Celebrity Big Brother, the warhorse of its winter season, while ratings at ITV1 were dented by the unveiling of a new schedule on 14 January, proving that new does not always equal better in the arcane world of scheduling.

Following the disappointing performance of some shows in ITV's new schedule, Simon Shaps, director of television, was replaced by former BBC1 controller Peter Fincham. However, Rupert Howell, ITV's director of brand and commercial, denies a link between Shaps' exit and the changes to ITV's programming strategy.

Meanwhile, unlike its commercial rivals, Five has weathered this year's winter storms well. Holding onto a stable 5.2% prime-time share in January, the channel went on to greater things in February. New additions to Five's line-up have proved popular with audiences, such as Australian soap Neighbours, which transferred from the BBC1 tea-time slot, earning Five an average 2.2 million viewers in the process.

Content scheduling
Natasha Kaplinsky's debut as the face of Five News brought in one million viewers and almost doubled the broadcaster's slot average at 5pm, with an average 8% share. "We have had a brilliant February," says Mark White, executive director of sales at Five. "Five's share was the best for the past 14 months and our digital channels have also seen their best months."

White believes the channel's success stems from scheduling content across Five and digital siblings Five Life and Five US. Of Neighbours, and fellow Antipodean soap Home and Away, he says: "We have been able to build an audience for a programme on the basis of playing the shows out on a family of channels."

He adds: "The digital channels are like a video recorder: they give people the chance to watch the shows when it suits them. We broadcast Home and Away at 6.30pm on Five Life, just after it airs on Five. The audience then is more than 600,000, and Neighbours attacts 200,000 viewers even when it airs on Five Life at 7pm."

Five has seen even better results from playing out US police drama import CSI on both its terrestrial and digital schedules. "In a strange way, showing CSI on Five US brings audiences back to Five," says White. "For season seven, we had a 3.3 million average audience, and we had a 3.8 million average audience for season eight."

Five will continue to pursue a cross-platform strategy. "When we use content on our other channels, the programmes are stronger and have more value," says White. "You make the content go further. Ultimately, it's about fuelling the family as a whole, rather than eating up the audience from your parent channel."

Richard Oliver, managing partner of investment at Universal McCann, does not see the 5pm news as a radical departure for Five, but believes Neighbours will work for the channel. "The news is not really new because Five had Kirsty Young before," he says. "It is just reinvigorating it. But Neighbours is a smart commercial decision."

James Appleby, broadcast account director at Mediaedge:cia, argues that Five is now outpacing C4 with its American dramas and comedies. "C4 was the home of US imports, but now it's Five," he says. "Five has CSI, NCIS and Everybody Hates Chris. Five is not growing its audience, but it is certainly stemming the flow."

Meanwhile, ITV intends to keep ploughing the same furrow, despite early disappointment with its new schedule. Gary Digby, managing director of ITV Customer Relations, says: "The schedule has been well received in the main. We had to change it because some shows started to wear out. People appreciated that we had to take a risk. As a commercial broadcaster we are always going to maximise our audience delivery."

Personality issue
ITV hopes the schedule will maximise ratings for drama in particular. "We struggled to make drama work at 10pm," says Digby. "And 90-minute drama doesn't sell on a global basis either. It seemed logical to change it." ITV1 also wanted to give itself a discernible personality by reinstating the news to 10pm. "We felt that if we wanted to be a credible station, then we had to have a credible news show," adds Digby. "When you have big sports events, you can run through and viewers like that."

But Toby Syfret, media analyst at Enders Analysis, has a less positive view of ITV1's schedule overhaul. "ITV has improved its performance in daytime, but it's losing the plot in peak time, where its strength has always been," he says of the 16.95% year-on-year drop sustained by the channel's 9pm slot since the new schedule launch.

"So far, scheduling the news at 10pm has not worked as ITV would have hoped. The essential problem is that the BBC is already in that slot." Syfret believes greater audience losses are possible as the year continues. He adds: "The worry is for later in the year. ITV1 is benefiting from daytime being well up on last year. Once we get to the summer, if peak time is down, we will start to see some erosion."

MEC's Appleby also predicts problems for ITV1's schedule further down the road, this time stemming from the channel's target demographic. "ITV needs to attract younger upmarket audiences," he says. "A massive part of ITV1's viewers are over 50. Doc Martin will do well, but if the channel does something new and clever, it will do okay, but it won't do the numbers you expect from ITV1."

Appleby points to sibling dramas Echo Beach and Moving Wallpaper, which both scored around 2 million viewers and took a 10% audience share across the 9pm slot on Friday nights in February. "The shows are neither Miss Marple, which you know audiences will like, or The X-Factor, which is exciting and engaging," says Appleby. "ITV is caught in a trap and it has to decide one way or the other."

However, the outlook is not all bleak, says Universal McCann's Oliver. "ITV1 potentially has a chance to put more interesting shows in at 10.30pm," he says. "This is a weird spoiler for C4, which had that spot for Ramsay's Kitchen Nightmares USA and US imports. This could be a regular draw of a couple of million viewers with a good ABC1 profile, which could translate into good commercial impacts."

While it is too early to measure the real impact of ITV1's new schedule on C4, the latter also has scheduling issues. Last year, C4 announced a schedule shake-up in the wake of the controversy surrounding Celebrity Big Brother.

Rosemary Newell, Channel 4's controller of broadcasting, admits the strategy is ambitious - but achievable. "Last summer we committed to a programme of creative renewal that entailed a clear-out of peak-time schedule," she says. "We could not just schedule returning series again and again and again. Grand Designs has stayed and everything else is entirely new at 9pm."

Renewal strategy
Newell admits this is no mean feat. "We have to ensure that the schedule is watched by a broad range of people and appeals to audiences that advertisers find attractive," she says. "It has to feel as though it is legitimately C4. The schedule has to contain risk and new ideas"

But MEC's Appleby is not convinced that this strategy of creative renewal can be realised. He argues: "C4 has got property stalwarts like Grand Designs and Relocation, Relocation, but they are not creating anything new or major. That game show Unanimous was God-awful and Goldplated, the drama about the nouveau riche in Cheshire, didn't come off."

And while the property programmes keep the upmarket audience happy, they do not appeal to the younger demographic. "C4's 16 to 34 ratings are down 20 points year on year," Appleby adds. "What you lose in core impact, you also lose in halo effect around programmes such as Ugly Betty. That is C4's single biggest issue."

Universal McCann's Oliver agrees. "The innovation required to reinvent whole swathes of C4's schedule is a tall order, but it needs to do this," he says. "Apart from Hollyoaks and US acquisitions in peak time, C4 needs to reinvigorate or reinvent genres. Wife Swap was a new programming genre and a big peak-time volume driver." Oliver's advice for C4? "It needs to find the next Wife Swap."

TERRESTRIAL COMMERCIAL BROADCASTERS' PEAK-TIME SCHEDULES

ITV SUNDAY 2 MARCH
5:30 - Beat: Life On The Street - Viewers: 2.221* Share: 3.1%
6:00 - Regional News/Weather - Viewers: 4.222 Share: 23.0%
6:15 - ITV News/Weather - Viewers: 5.471 Share: 28.4%
6:30 - Dancing On Ice - Viewers: 9.137 Share: 40.9%
7:30 - Wild at Heart - Viewers: 8.252 Share: 32.8%
8:30 - Dancing On Ice: The Skate Off - Viewers: 8.449 Share: 31.4%
9:00 - Lewis - Viewers: 7.732 Share: 35.0%

After clearing out soaps from its weekend schedule, ITV1 has scored with its mix of light entertainment and drama on Saturdays and Sundays. In fact, Sunday is currently bringing in the channel's best ratings of the week, with a line-up of celebrity format Dancing on Ice, interspersed with dramas Wild at Heart and Lewis. "Drama at 9pm has always been a great property for ITV," says Richard Oliver at Universal McCann. "It has traditionally been important in putting strong competition against the BBC's costume dramas." ITV1's current performance could even be improved upon, says Oliver. "There was always going to be a lag between putting the new schedule in place and having content to populate it," he says. "It can and will get stronger."

C4 WEDNESDAY 27 FEBRUARY
5:00 - Richard & Judy - Viewers: 1.685* Share: 12.4%
6:00 - The Simpsons - Viewers: 2.026 Share: 10.8%
6:30 - Hollyoaks - Viewers: 2.089 Share: 10.1%
7:00 - News/Weather - Viewers: 0.971 Share: 4.3%
7:55 - Zimbabwe-on-Thames - Viewers: 1.288 Share: 5.5%
8:00 - Relocation, Relocation - Viewers: 2.945 Share: 12.1%
9:00 - Grand Designs Revisited - Viewers: 3.521 Share: 14.5%
10:00 - Ramsay's Kitchen Nightmares USA - Viewers: 3.109 Share: 16.7%

Channel 4 has always been a trailblazer in lifestyle programming, and property is proving to be its most successful and enduring strand. With Relocation, Relocation and Grand Designs headlining its Wednesday night schedule, C4's ratings peak midweek. "On Wednesday nights, Relocation, Relocation and Grand Designs followed by Ramsay's Kitchen Nightmares USA are aimed at ABC1s rather than young people," says MEC's James Appleby. Although Relocation, Relocation and Grand Designs are getting long in the tooth, property shows are still Channel 4's saving grace. "Property is massive in this country," says Appleby. "People still rank having a great home as their number one or two aspiration."

FIVE TUESDAY 26 FEBRUARY
5:30 - Neighbours - Viewers: 1.986* Share: 13.0%
6:00 - Home and Away - Viewers: 1.289 Share: 6.9%
6:30 - Zoo Days - Viewers: 0.504 Share: 2.5%
7:00 - News/Weather - Viewers: 0.349 Share: 1.7%
7:30 - Animal Rescue Squad - Viewers: 0.738 Share: 3.2%
8:00 - Bermuda Triangle - The True Story - Viewers: 1.636 Share: 6.8%
9:00 - CSI: Crime Scene Investigation - Viewers: 3.094 Share: 13.1%
10:00 - CSI: CSI Miami - Viewers: 1.871 Share: 10.6%

Five peaks early in the week thanks to a double-dose of US forensic drama, with CSI at 9pm on Tuesday nights, followed by spin-off show CSI: Miami at 10pm, and rounded off with imported police drama, Law & Order: Criminal Intent, at 11pm. "Five has built itself strongly around back-to-back CSI," says MEC's James Appleby. "Five has been clever and has kept the schedule very simple." Viewers are also drawn in by a weekly competition, which sets viewers a question at the start of the first episode. Appleby says: "This keeps you watching to find out the answer."

- (Source for viewers' audience share: Barb, * viewing figures in millions).