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The curtain comes down on tobacco advertising today (Thursday) after decades of famous ad campaigns run by brands such as Hamlet, Silk Cut and Marlboro.

Despite promises by ministers that the ban will "eventually" save 3000 lives a year - 2.5% of the current total - sceptics question whether the ban will work unless it is closely integrated with a comprehensive anti-smoking programme.

Much of this doubt comes from the industry itself, which believes the introduction of international voluntary marketing standards would have been sufficient. Advertising is about encouraging smokers to switch brands, says the industry, not to take up the habit.

"The Department of Health has plucked this target figure for saving lives out of the air," says Tim Lord, chief executive of the Tobacco Manufacturers' Association and a former marketer at British American Tobacco. "An advertising ban will merely reinforce the positions of the market leaders."

A spokeswoman for Gallaher, owner of the Hamlet and Silk Cut brands, adds that evidence from Scandinavian countries that have introduced marketing restrictions suggests that bans do not reduce smoking-related deaths.

"A ban on press and poster advertising was introduced in Norway in 1975; but in 2001, per capita consumption was about 25% higher than in the year the ban was introduced," she says.

The government's response is to point to a longer-term package of measures to combat smoking, including the provision of nicotine replacement therapy on the NHS and more frequent and harder-hitting anti-tobacco campaigns.

Despite the advent of this week's ban on poster and press advertising, the industry still awaits details of regulations covering point-of-sale material and brand sharing; outbound direct marketing and on-pack promotions will be restricted from May 14.

The final piece of the jigsaw will come in July 2005, when tobacco sponsorship across the EU will cease. The date has caused consternation among Formula One teams, which claim that existing contracts with tobacco sponsors until 2006 are unbreakable.

But the resilience of tobacco brands can be inferred from the fact that no major UK cigarette manufacturer plans any marketing cutbacks as a consequence of the ban. While Rothmans amalgamates its trade and brand marketing teams, other companies are developing alternative point-of-sale strategies.

M&C Saatchi's farewell campaign for Silk Cut, featuring a fat lady singing, is a humorous acknowledgement of this week's ban. But with restrictions on other media yet to be resolved, and legislative challenges in the offing, it may well be that our overweight friend is singing prematurely.

CIGARETTE ADVERTISING PROMOTION
                  Cinema      Outdoor     Press      Radio     TV
Austria            R/X         R/X         R/X        B         B
Belgium            B           B           B          B         B

Denmark B B B B B

Finland B B B B B

France B B B B B

Germany R/X R/X R/X B B

Greece R/*/X R/*/X R/X B B

Ireland B B B B B

Italy B B B B B

Luxembourg B R/X R/X B B

Netherlands B B B B B

Portugal B B B B B

Spain R/X R/X R/X R/X B

Sweden B B B B B

B = Banned

R = Restrictions apply

* = Proposals pending

X = Warning required