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The Q2 2005 EMEA Email Trend Report revealed that the average open rate was 32 per cent, down from 40 per cent in Q2 2004. For the UK the average was 31.8 per cent.

DoubleClick cites a number of reasons for the drop, including: default-blocking of images by email service providers, such as AOL, MSN Hotmail and Google; ageing of client customer email lists; and users growing more selective in what they open.

"People are getting a lot more emails, the number of subscriptions they have is going up and there is more spam out there," says John Nugent, managing director, EMEA, at DoubleClick Email Marketing Solutions.

Should marketers be worried? Nugent doesn't think so, as the other key figures in the report were generally positive.

EMEA non-bounce-back rates for emails continued to improve, rising 1.6 per cent year-on-year in Q2. Spam complaints fell by 31.2 per cent to 0.64 per cent, and click-through rates remained at an average of 9.7 per cent.

Test campaigns

"I don't think clients should be concerned," says Nugent. "With the image-blocking issue, the biggest concern is that clients need to design emails so they work without images, and make sure they get onto subscribers' safe lists.

"Apart from that, the usual best-practice tactics need to be applied. Brands need to test campaigns every time; test subject lines and segment their audiences to make sure they're sending relevant messages to consumers at the right time."

Joe Sikorsky, digital marketing manager at BA, isn't too concerned that average open rates are falling and BA's rate remains above average for most of its campaigns. But, he admits: "We are really fighting for the inbox and constantly having to test subject lines and be more sophisticated in our segmentation, so we don't really send out mass messages any more."

The report doesn't distinguish between customer-acquisition emails sent out to mass lists bought from brokers and customer-retention campaigns sent to the brand's subscriber list. Yet, there is a big difference between the two, says Julie Jeancolas, group account director at media agency Carat Digital.

"We send out campaigns to both Renault customers and prospects and you can see the difference," she says. "When you're a customer who has already engaged with a brand, you don't mind receiving emails and are more likely to open them."

She believes that, while open rates for acquisition campaigns may be falling, those for customer retention are increasing if they've been created properly.

With acquisition open rates falling, email is becoming less cost-effective for acquisition, causing clients to divert spend.

Cold lists

"The money we invest in email is nowhere near as much as we used to. We can get more from our money using other channels such as search and affiliate," says Emma Wilson, account director at agency Harvest Digital.

"Email is at the bottom of the list, based on performance, but I'm talking purely about acquisition and sourcing cold lists. It can be cost-effective for house lists as a way of re-activating and retaining customers."

Many agencies believe clients should only have to pay for emails that are opened.

Paul Frampton, head of digital at Media Contacts, the direct arm of Media Planning Group, argues that the email model needs to become cheaper if it is to remain useful. "It's fundamentally wrong that we're expected to pay for people who don't even see the message and delete it from their inbox."

Nugent argues that there is a brand value to reaching consumers' inboxes. "Even if they are not opening emails, they are reminded week-in and week-out that your brand exists, and recall is much higher for a subscriber than a non-subscriber."

Frampton is more sceptical: "If it's reaching your inbox, week after week, invading your personal space when you're not interested, where's the value in that? It may increase awareness of your brand, but is that positive or negative?"

If the current trend fails to reverse and pricing models do not change, email could lose its value as an acquisition tool and simply become a channel for brands wanting to engage with existing customers.