Earlier this month, ITV said its television ad revenue declined by 15% in the first half of 2009, forecasting that revenue would be down 12% in Q3 and 7% in September. ITV performed broadly in line with its own previous forecasts for Q1 and Q2, with TV ad revenue down 15% in the first half.
But TV buyers, whose predictions are key as the start of the new TV ad trading season nears, are dubious about ITV's outlook.
Chris Locke, group trading director at Starcom MediaVest, said ITV's September trading would be broadly in line with the rest of the market - down 14.5% - a view shared by other media buyers.
However, the rate of decline is expected to slow as the summer turns to autumn and viewers spend more time in front of their TV sets.
Richard Oliver, managing partner at UM, said: "October and November are down about 10 to 11% at the moment."
However, TV is bearing up better than some other media. In June, GroupM revised down its forecasts for newspaper ad revenue to be down 26% and consumer magazines to fall 20%. Its outlook for the TV market remained unchanged, with revenue down 14%.
But Jim McDonald, head of broadcast at MPG, reckoned TV would "be down about 15% to 16%."
He said: "The disappointing thing is that because the collapse of the market started in September last year, that decline was coming from a low base. We did hope it would be a single figure as opposed to a double figure decline."
Locke added: "We always said it would be a year of two halves, with the second half less bad." He predicted Q3 would be down "just under" 16% and Q4 down by about 12%, adding the fourth quarter could be worse.
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