A number of surveys and WPP CEO Sir Martin Sorrell have all pointed to 2004 as the date when a bounce-back can really be expected in the advertising industry's fortunes, but global ad revenues in that year will only hit $232bn (£149bn) compared with $236bn in 2000.
Zenith said that adspend in the world's seven-biggest markets is set to fall by 1.4% in 2002, compared with last year's 5.2% as the industry was hit hard by the global downturn and the events of September 11.
However, 2003 will see a significant reversal of this, moving the ad industry back into the black. In the top seven markets, which include the US, the UK, Germany and Japan, a rise of 1.5% is being forecast. This rise is being seen as conservative by some and could well be higher.
By 2004, growth will have doubled on the previous year, hitting an expected 3.6%. While a healthy increase, it is not big enough to reverse the declines of the previous three years nor return the industry to the highs it enjoyed at the time of the dotcom boom.
Speaking in an interview in May, Sir Martin was the first to project 2004 would be the year the industry would start to see stronger signs of recovery.
"I think you have to wait until 2004 for conditions to really strengthen. No doubt George Bush will want to go to the country with a strong economy and then you've got the Athens Olympic Games," he said.
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