There have been rumblings in radio that Channel 4 had got cold feet on its radio ambitions. Delays in launching the second digital multiplex, which it heads, have only encouraged these murmurs.
One might not be surprised if Channel 4 was having second thoughts. The radio landscape is vastly different to that which existed when 4Digital won the second multiplex last summer.
Radio seems to be losing faith in DAB, with some favouring the internet as the best avenue for digital distribution, while there suddenly appears to be an over-supply of DAB capacity, leading to questions over the need for a second multiplex.
GCap's withdrawal from its majority ownership of Digital One was followed by the closure of most of its DAB stations along with rivals such as OneWord.
The planned Virgin Viva station left 4Digital before the platform even launched and there are doubts over Sky News Radio ever getting to air.
Merger speculation
It emerged last week that 4Digital and Digital One are in talks about a possible merger of the two platforms. This could result in both multiplexes functioning under a single company, sharing some of the hardware, such as masts. There would still be an issue with over-capacity, however 30% of the Digital One spectrum can be used for non-radio purposes.
Paul Bates, media analyst at Charles Stanley, thinks the market cannot even support one national DAB multiplex at the moment: "The creation of a second multiplex by Ofcom before the first one was up to speed was a mistake.
"It has flooded the market with capacity. I wouldn't back a second stand-alone multiplex, but there are some big personalities pushing it who have to see it through. It's Nathalie Schwarz's raison d'etre."
Schwarz, who chairs 4Digital, has the added pressure of the radio ad market coming under strain. DAB stations were already struggling to get advertising and an ad recession will make it even harder.
Howard Bareham, MindShare's head of radio, says: "Since April's radio market died a death, it's not looking good for the coming months. Underlying all this is the market's nervousness and uncertainty because of its lack of visibility. We can only see what's coming up just before it happens."
Erica Taylor, group buying director for Starcom MediaVest Group, believes the current "cost per 1,000" model (buying air per 1,000 adults) supporting digital radio needs some reworking for Digital One to be commercially viable, let alone a second multiplex.
She says: "Other commercial opportunities need to be further explored, such as sponsorship and promotions and online.
"If the brand and the station are right, the platform shouldn't even matter, but digital is still new and people are unsure what the listener really wants.
"Right now, DAB stations are relying upon audience figures to generate income."
Politics are doubtless also occupying Channel 4's thinking at the moment. How can C4 have its begging bowl out for £150m of public funding for its TV channels, while it is at the same time starting a risky cash-consuming radio business?
The original business plan showed Channel 4 thought it could make money from the venture, but with a large part relying on tenants' rent for a slot on the multiplex when there was no space left on Digital One, the picture seems to have changed somewhat.
Funding concerns
Jocelyn Hay, chairman of Voice of the Listener and Viewer, says: "The situation has altered since GCap pulled out of Digital One and its digital services.
"It would be good to have another presentation of 4Digital's business plan in light of this, as it's not so clear how it will fund these services without drawing on Channel 4's core TV funding."
A senior executive at a rival broadcaster says: "My contacts on the C4 board see the company still very much as a TV company. I am not convinced that the radio strategy is close to the beating heart of Channel 4. However, it has embarked upon it and can't reverse. Nathalie Schwarz will have a different mentality about it than before. It's now about avoiding embarrassment."
There is some good news for Schwarz, however. Most people in the industry believe there is still plenty of life left in DAB.
Jonathan Barrowman, head of radio at Initiative, says: "DAB has to be a part of the broadcast structure going forward. The question is whether we can fill 14 slots on two multiplexes."
But Ofcom has committed to two multiplexes and, having won them, 4Digital and Digital One must now make them work, and eventually fill these slots - even if there is short-term pain.
CURRENT DAB RADIO OFFER
Digital One
Planet Rock - closing on 28 April
Virgin Radio
Classic FM
TalkSport
Birdsong Channel (temporary)
4Digital
Channel 4 Radio: speech-based service
E4 Radio: interactive music and entertainment
Pure4: adult-oriented music
Talk Radio: (UTV)
Closer Radio: celebrity gossip (Emap)
Radio Disney: children's
Original: adult album music (CanWest)
Possible: Sky News Radio (partners tbc)
DAB stations closed in last 12 months
OneWord
Virgin Radio Groove
Core
Capital Life
theJazz
British Forces Broadcast (after a three-month trial)
Capital Disney.